Episode 71. The Defense of Valhart’s Western Fortress (3)
I organized my thoughts.
Assuming the news of the 50,000-strong vanguard’s dispatch itself was a ‘bait’, it was not difficult to speculate why specifically 50,000.
Even if it’s not a castle but a fortress, fundamentally, in battle, the side defending is vastly superior to the one besieging.
“It’s not that we can’t hold them off, but neither can we overwhelm them, so in the end, both sides would just engage in a protracted stalemate, wouldn’t they?”
Jinor must have kept that in mind and argued, “If it goes to a long war, our army will lose.”
For Brans’s army to definitely secure a victory, they would need to bring at least 70-80 thousand troops.
“Perhaps they could scrape together an additional 20-30 thousand troops given Brans’s army’s resources, considering its large population and wide borders, meaning they had a large number of soldiers stationed across them.”
By then, Epinel would likely have ceased resistance and returned to the castle. “It would have been a much more rational decision to hold a siege, including the troops in the castle.”
There, something resembling an ‘answer’ became apparent.
“Since the number that made Epinel not retreat was 50,000… Did they match the numbers?”
If the intention was to tie up the troops here, including me, to give a sense of ‘it’s worth a try’, the number 53,000 was exceedingly precise.
In fact, it was as if Epinel’s capitulation proved it.
“Wait a minute.”
If the vanguard is bait for us, it means their goal isn’t the fortress after all.
“Otherwise, there’s no reason to send bait to the fortress.”
Then what exactly is their objective?
Here again, I came up with two invariably correct predictions.
Retreating the soldiers means, “a somewhat close measure.”
“Winning the battle depends on- in other words, how our army acts.”
“If our army ‘chooses something’, we win.”
And, retreating soldiers from the fortress to Valharrat Castle is “somewhat close to the correct action.”
“Including retreating soldiers… Does our army need to do something to win?”
But then, doesn’t the sentence seem a bit odd?
“What do we need to do to win?”
“What leads to defeat if not done?”
“A situation where we lose if something isn’t done… A situation where we win only if something is done…”
Once more, I started compiling all possible actions Brans’s army could take in my mind.
The more I eliminate the impossibilities, the clearer the truth will shine through.
“What would Brans’s army have done?”
“What actions led to these two predictions resulting in such an outcome?”
Once more…
* * *
“…Huh.”
After hearing Parfale’s explanation, Chel was aghast, unable to say anything.
“What do you think?”
“More than what to think… It’s too bold… Is it really possible…?”
“It is possible. No, this method is the only option if we want to strike Aeshers’s army swiftly without waiting for 30,000 troops.”
Parfale spoke in a very serious tone.
“Of course, this method can only be used now, just this once. I understand the risks involved if we fail are not small at all. However, I believe now is the time to make a decision.”
“Uhm…”
Chel pondered, stroking his chin.
Parfale’s proposal.
Certainly, it was the most unconventional and efficient method available under the current circumstances.
The problem was just one. The enormous loss our army would suffer if we failed.
Already due to Airen’s betrayal, over 30,000 soldiers switched from Brans to Aeshers in an instant. If we lose the current troops as well, it could lead to an irreversible situation.
“Wouldn’t it become a question of whether the southern border breaks or the northern one?”
“It seems too reckless… but, upon further reflection, proceeding slowly with a frontal assault on the fortress seems the safer option. Of course, Swen’s ability worries me, but as the strategist said, if he could use that ability at will, he would have invaded Raclain Castle by now, wouldn’t he? In fact, Swen himself said while he was with our forces that it wasn’t an ability he could use whenever he wanted.”
“Then, let’s assume, as General you suggested, that Swen can’t use his ability,” Parfale countered, once again laying his hand on the map on the table to start his explanation.
“If it comes to a drawn-out war, we would win, but it’s uncertain how long it would take. Aeshers’s army has many commanders with exceptional abilities. Of course, if we drag it out, we’ll eventually win, but it’s uncertain if the southern and northern nations, Serphina included, will just stand by in the meantime. Given our lord’s firm resolve to prioritize punishing Aeshers’s army- finishing this as quickly as possible seems like the correct answer. And not dragging it out is the only way, aside from the method I just described.”
“But… isn’t there a chance your strategy won’t work?”
“Of course, there is a possibility, but I view that probability as extremely low.”
“I’d like to hear your reasoning.”
Parfale nodded before responding.
“The current commander of the fortress, Epinel Rosencross, has a straightforward personality, a warrior type general. She prefers frontal assaults over relying on strategies or tricks. It’s likely she will argue for holding the fortress. Given her high standing within Aeshers’s army, her opinion will naturally carry weight. This is based on information gathered and cross-verified while stationed on the eastern border, so there’s no mistake.”
“Then, in the end…”
“Yes. While the loss we might suffer if we fail is significant, engaging in a frontal battle without a clear understanding of Swen’s abilities, as it stands, doesn’t give us much of an advantage either. If both scenarios carry risks, shouldn’t we opt for the one with a larger potential reward?”
“…”
“Chel, that is all I have to say. Whether or not you follow my advice, I will support you with all my heart and soul.”
Parfale, although holding a high position as a national strategist, ultimately left the decision-making in the hands of Chel, the general.
After a long moment of contemplation, Chel seemed to make a decision, nodding as he said,
“…We-”
* * *
I cleared my mind completely.
And then, I only focused on the two facts that resulted from the previous predictions.
The outcome of the battle depends on our army’s choice.
Retreating troops from here is somewhat the right action.
These two premises are absolute truths. A brain with an intelligence of 100 only speaks the truth.
Meaning, retreating troops and our army doing ‘something’ are both absolutely necessary for victory in this battle.
I stared at the map for a long while.
The forests that were quite widely spread around.
Raclain Castle. The fortress. And the straight, narrow path leading to Valharrat Castle.
Slowly looking at the map-
I began to eliminate possibilities, one by one.
All the strategies Brans’s army could use against us.
All the countermeasures our army could take against Brans’s army.
As I eliminated them all… only one ‘possibility’ shone brightly out of the darkness.
“…!”
That moment.
The tangled web of thoughts in my head suddenly cleared, and I felt like I understood why a brain with an intelligence of 100 made such predictions.
It was as if something akin to divine revelation… enveloped me intensely.
“…Ambush.”
Without realizing, I whispered that word.
Yes.
Ambush.
The enemy’s goal isn’t this fortress.
The vanguard sent here is a diversion.
The enemy’s target is the capital of Aeshers’s army and its only stronghold-
“The enemy plans to ambush Valharrat Castle.”
The number of troops dispatched might very well not be 50,000. Spreading false information wouldn’t be a difficult task.
Even if accurate, the troops arriving at the fortress would be fewer. The rest could simply march through the forest, circling around to Valharrat Castle.
Thinking this way, the fragmented pieces of information that seemed unrelated until now started to fit together seamlessly.
So.
That’s why the brain with an intelligence of 100 said it depends on [heaven’s will].
Because, if we prepare for the ambush, we win. But if we fail to prepare for it, we lose.
That’s why the brain with an intelligence of 100 mentioned it was [somewhat close].
If we pull troops from the fortress and station them at Valharrat Castle, we can at least prevent the ambush.
But Brans’s army isn’t foolish. If they see reinforcements, they likely won’t engage and will withdraw their forces instead.
Jinor’s proposal is a half-correct answer. It preserves our army’s forces but also leaves Brans’s army unscathed, a kind of status quo.
“Somewhat close” perfectly describes the situation once more.
The real answer.
The most efficient solution for Aeshers’s army, as predicted by an intelligence of 100, is to prepare for and counter the ambush.
An ambush gone awry would throw the enemy troops into disarray. Organizing soldiers whose formation has collapsed would be as easy as eating cake.
Preserving our forces while delivering a crippling blow to Brans’s army.
That is precisely “preparing for an ambush on Valharrat Castle.”
“…Ha.”
I sighed deeply, leaning back in the chair I was sitting in.
If you notice, cold sweat was running down my entire body.
It felt like walking on thin ice. Although utterly incomprehensible, extracting how things were connected from sentences that were unquestionably true required an enormous amount of energy.
Yet still.
In the end, I managed to find a route that seemed about right.
“This is just halfway there.”
Indeed.
At the point of discovery, it was only halfway there.
This wasn’t Lunarien’s army, which would almost unconditionally follow my orders.
Even if my words were absolutely correct, if they aren’t heeded, they mean nothing.
Moreover, this place was Aeshers’s army, where even someone like Jinor could be dismissed as lacking experience.
“I still have to persuade them.”
Even if someone like me, a new general, tried, it’s unlikely I could sway Epinel’s heart.
So, the first person I should contact… is ultimately Jinor.
Jinor is a national strategist. Even if Epinel once ignored Jinor’s advice, the chances of Jinor convincing her are higher than mine convincing her.
“There’s no time. Let’s move.”
I stood up and headed towards where Jinor was.
