Chapter 95: The Battle of Hisfil Castle (5)
“…!”
Upon hearing my words, Jinor’s expression momentarily turned pale, then confusion gradually took over his weathered face.
Setting aside his initial surprise, it was my confident assertion—”Lady Anima will lose this battle”—that puzzled him.
“Tell me, Swen. After a cryptic exchange, how did you arrive at such a conclusion?”
Yuri is not Luna.
Simply going and saying so would not convince anyone. If anything, I expected a reaction similar to Jinor’s.
To persuade, I needed to flesh out this conclusion.
So then, why must I go to the lengths of persuading, to aid Aeshers Army?
I had already done as much as was due for the grace she had shown me. No, considering that Airen had risked her life in carrying out the strategy, I felt rather indebted to her.
But if there’s a reason to help, what would it be?
Not to mention, I was currently affiliated with Aeshers Army.
Based on the stories I heard from Anima and the atmosphere of this nation, it was clear that the moment she met with misfortune, Aeshers Army would rapidly crumble.
Not just her, but if Ernandorf, Emma, or Epinel met with an accident, it would be the same.
There’s no need to think further. It would lead to reckless actions in the name of vengeance. Initially, the momentum of vengeance might lead to success, but in a prolonged conflict, it would undoubtedly result in defeat against Serpina’s Army, which had a glaring advantage in strength. This was a fact so obvious it didn’t even require intelligence to predict.
The exceptional bond among this quintet, alongside the resilience built from their bottom-up experiences, is, well, considered an advantage.
Having someone to truly rely on and stand back-to-back with in these troubled times is an asset in itself.
In an age where deception and betrayal are commonplace, and betraying one’s lord is hardly seen as a flaw.
Just the fact that Airen and I could coexist without trouble is proof enough.
However,
As much as there are advantages, the disadvantages were clear. Jinor, right before me, who was somewhat restrained despite his capabilities, was proof of that.
As previously thought, if one of the five were to falter, the nation would collapse rapidly, an almost certain scenario.
If Yuri were to lose her judgment and go on a rampage, the safe haven for Airen and me would vanish.
Moreover, setting aside my personal circumstances,
For Aeshers Army to prematurely collapse and be devoured by Serpina’s forces would serve no good purpose.
For the future of Lunarien’s forces, maintaining a balance among Brans, Serpina, and Aeshers in the Central Continent was the most ideal situation.
“Therefore, it’s up to me to step in.”
Having decided to persuade, it’s time to lay the groundwork.
To persuade the lord, I need to organize the situation here and now.
Then, is Jinor the person I need to convince now?
“Lord Jinor, could you come over here?”
Instead of responding, Jinor looked at me with evident confusion but eventually approached me with a markedly serious expression.
Hisphil Castle, huh.
I was reminded of the old days, drawing maps in Airen’s house in Anel Castle.
Hisphil Castle was located on the border near Charam’s forces back then.
Meaning, I had drawn the maps around that area.
I pulled out the fitting map from my pouch and spread it out on the table.
“Ultimately, battles take place on the ground.”
I have played this game for over ten thousand hours.
I’m familiar with almost every scenario. If Anima’s defeat is nearly certain, then I should be able to figure out how she loses.
“Let’s see.”
If Anima were to start from Racline Castle, there would be three routes.
But there was no need to scrutinize each route.
She would definitely choose the shortest route, the straight line up.
Though somewhat rugged, it was still the quickest path.
“Among these three paths, if you were to ambush, which path do you think would be the best to take?”
“…You’ve been avoiding direct answers and keep asking questions. What exactly are you getting at?”
” To explain precisely why Lady Anima ends up losing.”
“That’s what you call an explanation?”
Jinor still seemed unable to grasp my point.
Certainly, from his perspective, it might seem as though I’m grasping at straws.
What would be the best approach here?
I could slowly explain my situation, but… it was time to be a bit more forceful.
“Indeed. Please, tell me. I assure you, I will provide a satisfactory explanation.”
“…”
Though it might not have worked if I had just been commissioned to Aeshers Army, I had already achieved some ‘results,’ and Jinor had been the closest observer of that process.
While I couldn’t be sure of his true intentions, considering he was considering marrying his foster daughter to me, there was a chance he would take my words seriously.
After a moment of silent contemplation, Jinor finally nodded slowly, as if making a decision, and began to answer my questions.
“If it’s an ambush, naturally, the middle path, the shortest route.”
“Do you agree? I think so too.”
Predicting Anima’s decisions wasn’t hard.
From her perspective, Hisphil Castle being unguarded was an opportunity for a “surprise attack”.
Thus, she would likely push her forces, even at the risk of overextending, to arrive as quickly as possible.
“Wait. Since you’ve asked questions, allow me to ask as well. It’s better than a one-sided explanation, isn’t it?”
“Go ahead.”
“If it’s a surprise attack, it means Anima had some basis for it. What is that basis?”
In other words, what did Anima rely on to initiate the attack?
There’s not enough information to draw conclusions.
Anything will do. I needed information about Anima Ingram.
“To answer that, I must inquire about Lady Anima.”
“Answering by asking, is that it?”
After mulling over my words several times, Jinor finally provided an answer.
“…Anima, as you know, Swen, was the national strategist of Aeshers Army before I arrived. I believe she has talent. Though I couldn’t observe her for long, it was she who plotted the course Aeshers Army has taken.”
“I see. What about her personality?”
“I couldn’t say in detail due to my absence… but she’s extremely cautious. Shortly after she became strategist, I reviewed all the strategies and plans she devised. Each one prioritized minimizing failure. She quickly withdrew from any plan she deemed unfeasible.”
“Cautious, I see. That’s good enough. It’s helpful. Then, she must have checked whether the castle had troops.”
“It’s highly likely.”
If she’s cautious, she wouldn’t just attempt a surprise attack.
Yet, according to my prediction, she loses.
The possibilities were vast, but narrowed down to two main scenarios.
First, an unfortunate encounter with a natural disaster.
Second, Hisphil Castle actually had troops despite her checks.
Excluding natural disasters for now…
Without a way to accurately predict, it’s impossible to dismiss the chance of a disaster affecting
Aeshers Army. Even if the probability is low, there’s always a chance a lightning strike or meteor could cause defeat.
But I needed to persuade Jinor, and eventually Yuri.
Imagine saying with a serious face, “Lady Anima will lose because her troops will be struck by lightning.”
How could they possibly take such an absurd claim at face value?
Even if I’ve called down meteors before, they wouldn’t easily believe in such an unpredictable event.
Therefore, the story had to be more plausible.
That leaves the second option—
“Troops are hidden in Hisphil Castle, unknown even after Lady Anima’s check.”
“Hidden troops? You’re making less and less sense.”
“But it’s the truth. Troops can’t just vanish into thin air or burrow into the ground… perhaps hidden somewhere…”
As I scrutinized the map for an answer, something caught my eye.
“…?”
“?
In the southeast of Hisphil Castle, surrounded by forests, was a not-so-tall mountain range.
I pointed to that location.
“If troops were to hide… it would be here.”
If troops were hidden there, it would add credibility to “Anima will lose.” It was the perfect location for an ambush from behind.
“An ambush? Then there’s something odd.”
“What is it?”
“You asserted ‘Anima will lose.’ But she led over 50,000 troops. To defeat her, there must be at least as many troops hidden. It seems unlikely to hide such a force near there.”
True, hiding a force that large in the vicinity seemed impractical.
Suppose they managed it.
But while moving troops to the rear for an ambush, what about Hisphil Castle, left defenseless?
This didn’t lead to a definitive scenario of Anima’s defeat.
However, an ambush still seemed likely…
Given a confirmed prediction, I needed solid evidence.
What was I missing?
“Change the perspective.”
Instead of guessing Anima’s actions, let’s think from Serpina’s perspective.
“First, by moving troops westward as if withdrawing, they provoke Aeshers Army into action.”
“They quickly retreat south towards Hisphil Castle after detecting Anima’s advance. They may not reach the ambush site, but that’s irrelevant. Additional hidden troops already exist.”
“Whether Aeshers Army chooses to fight or flee doesn’t matter. The hidden troops encircle them from behind.”
“Therefore—”
Finally, the full picture emerged.
Anima’s defeat became clear.
“Lady Anima will lose this battle.”
